The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked renewed debate, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials distinguished between explosive detonations and non-yield activities such as delivery system tests. U.S. officials have cited concerns over possible low-yield experiments by adversaries, including a reported Chinese test in 2020, alongside the February 2026 expiration of New START. Preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground testing would require 18–36 months under current readiness protocols, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles through mid-2026. These factors, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and international arms control pressures, shape trader assessments of near-term resumption risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$669,980 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$669,980 交易量
2026年6月30日
$42,083 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$7,047 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,632 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked renewed debate, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials distinguished between explosive detonations and non-yield activities such as delivery system tests. U.S. officials have cited concerns over possible low-yield experiments by adversaries, including a reported Chinese test in 2020, alongside the February 2026 expiration of New START. Preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground testing would require 18–36 months under current readiness protocols, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles through mid-2026. These factors, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and international arms control pressures, shape trader assessments of near-term resumption risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$669,980结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked renewed debate, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials distinguished between explosive detonations and non-yield activities such as delivery system tests. U.S. officials have cited concerns over possible low-yield experiments by adversaries, including a reported Chinese test in 2020, alongside the February 2026 expiration of New START. Preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground testing would require 18–36 months under current readiness protocols, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles through mid-2026. These factors, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and international arms control pressures, shape trader assessments of near-term resumption risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$669,980结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked renewed debate, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials distinguished between explosive detonations and non-yield activities such as delivery system tests. U.S. officials have cited concerns over possible low-yield experiments by adversaries, including a reported Chinese test in 2020, alongside the February 2026 expiration of New START. Preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground testing would require 18–36 months under current readiness protocols, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles through mid-2026. These factors, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and international arms control pressures, shape trader assessments of near-term resumption risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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