Traders assign a 96.2% probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 primarily because the remaining timeframe is too short for visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes required for such an operation. Recent developments include China's January 2026 blockade-style drills and Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups, arms relocation, and communications resilience, yet both remain below levels signaling imminent conflict. U.S. assessments and regional reporting point to ongoing PLA readiness gaps and high expected costs from intervention by the United States and allies, while Beijing continues diplomatic and coercive pressure short of war. Late-breaking shifts could still arise from miscalculation during exercises or rapid policy changes, though these face significant structural and timing barriers before year-end.