Traders assign a 92.8% implied probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 due to the short remaining timeline and several stabilizing factors. China’s military has reduced air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since late February 2026, shifting toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure and joint training rather than sustained escalation. Recent purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures needed for complex amphibious operations, while official statements from Xi Jinping emphasize “peaceful development” of cross-strait relations alongside opposition to independence. Routine live-fire drills and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises continue without triggering broader conflict, and analysts note uneven progress in invasion capabilities amid external distractions. These developments reinforce trader consensus that near-term kinetic action remains improbable absent a major unforeseen catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$3,219,323 交易量
$3,219,323 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$3,219,323 交易量
$3,219,323 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% implied probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 due to the short remaining timeline and several stabilizing factors. China’s military has reduced air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since late February 2026, shifting toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure and joint training rather than sustained escalation. Recent purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures needed for complex amphibious operations, while official statements from Xi Jinping emphasize “peaceful development” of cross-strait relations alongside opposition to independence. Routine live-fire drills and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises continue without triggering broader conflict, and analysts note uneven progress in invasion capabilities amid external distractions. These developments reinforce trader consensus that near-term kinetic action remains improbable absent a major unforeseen catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$3,219,323结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% implied probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 due to the short remaining timeline and several stabilizing factors. China’s military has reduced air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since late February 2026, shifting toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure and joint training rather than sustained escalation. Recent purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures needed for complex amphibious operations, while official statements from Xi Jinping emphasize “peaceful development” of cross-strait relations alongside opposition to independence. Routine live-fire drills and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises continue without triggering broader conflict, and analysts note uneven progress in invasion capabilities amid external distractions. These developments reinforce trader consensus that near-term kinetic action remains improbable absent a major unforeseen catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,219,323结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.8% implied probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 due to the short remaining timeline and several stabilizing factors. China’s military has reduced air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since late February 2026, shifting toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure and joint training rather than sustained escalation. Recent purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures needed for complex amphibious operations, while official statements from Xi Jinping emphasize “peaceful development” of cross-strait relations alongside opposition to independence. Routine live-fire drills and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises continue without triggering broader conflict, and analysts note uneven progress in invasion capabilities amid external distractions. These developments reinforce trader consensus that near-term kinetic action remains improbable absent a major unforeseen catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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