Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, setting back capabilities by an estimated two years according to Pentagon assessments. Ongoing construction at some locations and a trapped stockpile of highly enriched uranium remain under IAEA scrutiny, with limited inspector access and repeated calls for verification. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran continue amid a preliminary ceasefire framework, while no public evidence indicates active preparations for a nuclear device test. These operational and diplomatic constraints underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$235,149 交易量
$235,149 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$235,149 交易量
$235,149 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, setting back capabilities by an estimated two years according to Pentagon assessments. Ongoing construction at some locations and a trapped stockpile of highly enriched uranium remain under IAEA scrutiny, with limited inspector access and repeated calls for verification. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran continue amid a preliminary ceasefire framework, while no public evidence indicates active preparations for a nuclear device test. These operational and diplomatic constraints underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$235,149结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, setting back capabilities by an estimated two years according to Pentagon assessments. Ongoing construction at some locations and a trapped stockpile of highly enriched uranium remain under IAEA scrutiny, with limited inspector access and repeated calls for verification. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran continue amid a preliminary ceasefire framework, while no public evidence indicates active preparations for a nuclear device test. These operational and diplomatic constraints underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$235,149结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin facilities, setting back capabilities by an estimated two years according to Pentagon assessments. Ongoing construction at some locations and a trapped stockpile of highly enriched uranium remain under IAEA scrutiny, with limited inspector access and repeated calls for verification. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran continue amid a preliminary ceasefire framework, while no public evidence indicates active preparations for a nuclear device test. These operational and diplomatic constraints underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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