EU sanctions enacted in 2025 explicitly ban direct or indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, aligning with the bloc's broader roadmap to end all Russian pipeline gas imports by 2027. Physical damage from the 2022 sabotage incidents leaves most lines inoperable, with only preservation measures such as sealing authorized rather than full repairs. Germany and other member states maintain firm commitments to energy diversification and independence from Russian supplies amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. These structural, legal, and policy barriers underpin trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% probability for no restart by December 31, 2026. A rapid peace agreement enabling swift certification, repairs, and sanctions relief remains a low-probability scenario that could still alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.