No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or scheduled an exit referendum since the United Kingdom's departure in 2020, leaving the 27-member bloc without active withdrawal proceedings. Deep integration through the single market, customs union, and shared regulatory frameworks creates high economic and procedural barriers that deter departure within the brief window to December 2026. Eurosceptic parties hold limited parliamentary influence in most capitals, with no credible campaigns or coalition shifts positioned to trigger a vote or negotiations before the deadline. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no exit reflects this stability and the lengthy timeline required for any reversal. Sudden domestic realignments, severe crises prompting referendums, or unexpected government changes could still intervene, though such developments currently lack momentum and would demand rapid execution to meet resolution criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是
4% 概率
$160,621 交易量
$160,621 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$160,621 交易量
$160,621 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or scheduled an exit referendum since the United Kingdom's departure in 2020, leaving the 27-member bloc without active withdrawal proceedings. Deep integration through the single market, customs union, and shared regulatory frameworks creates high economic and procedural barriers that deter departure within the brief window to December 2026. Eurosceptic parties hold limited parliamentary influence in most capitals, with no credible campaigns or coalition shifts positioned to trigger a vote or negotiations before the deadline. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no exit reflects this stability and the lengthy timeline required for any reversal. Sudden domestic realignments, severe crises prompting referendums, or unexpected government changes could still intervene, though such developments currently lack momentum and would demand rapid execution to meet resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$160,621结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or scheduled an exit referendum since the United Kingdom's departure in 2020, leaving the 27-member bloc without active withdrawal proceedings. Deep integration through the single market, customs union, and shared regulatory frameworks creates high economic and procedural barriers that deter departure within the brief window to December 2026. Eurosceptic parties hold limited parliamentary influence in most capitals, with no credible campaigns or coalition shifts positioned to trigger a vote or negotiations before the deadline. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no exit reflects this stability and the lengthy timeline required for any reversal. Sudden domestic realignments, severe crises prompting referendums, or unexpected government changes could still intervene, though such developments currently lack momentum and would demand rapid execution to meet resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$160,621结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or scheduled an exit referendum since the United Kingdom's departure in 2020, leaving the 27-member bloc without active withdrawal proceedings. Deep integration through the single market, customs union, and shared regulatory frameworks creates high economic and procedural barriers that deter departure within the brief window to December 2026. Eurosceptic parties hold limited parliamentary influence in most capitals, with no credible campaigns or coalition shifts positioned to trigger a vote or negotiations before the deadline. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no exit reflects this stability and the lengthy timeline required for any reversal. Sudden domestic realignments, severe crises prompting referendums, or unexpected government changes could still intervene, though such developments currently lack momentum and would demand rapid execution to meet resolution criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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