**Consistent polling deficits for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals) throughout the 2026 campaign, combined with exit polls and preliminary results from the September 13 election, underpin trader consensus against a majority.** Surveys from mid-2026 onward showed the centre-left opposition bloc holding leads of 5–10+ points, translating to roughly 175–185 seats versus under 175 for the Tidö group in most projections. Late narrowing narrowed the gap to 3–5 points but left the Tidö parties short in SVT/Valu and Novus exit polls (opposition at 51.3%, Tidö at 46.8–47.0%). Supplementary counting of advance, postal, and overseas ballots has further reduced any remaining path, with models indicating the opposition lead is now effectively insurmountable for 175+ seats. Lingering uncertainty centers on the final certified totals and whether any bloc reaches an outright majority, though historical patterns and current margins limit realistic reversal scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$25,030 交易量
$25,030 交易量
2026-09-13
是
3% 機率
$25,030 交易量
$25,030 交易量
2026-09-13
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Consistent polling deficits for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals) throughout the 2026 campaign, combined with exit polls and preliminary results from the September 13 election, underpin trader consensus against a majority.**
Surveys from mid-2026 onward showed the centre-left opposition bloc holding leads of 5–10+ points, translating to roughly 175–185 seats versus under 175 for the Tidö group in most projections. Late narrowing narrowed the gap to 3–5 points but left the Tidö parties short in SVT/Valu and Novus exit polls (opposition at 51.3%, Tidö at 46.8–47.0%). Supplementary counting of advance, postal, and overseas ballots has further reduced any remaining path, with models indicating the opposition lead is now effectively insurmountable for 175+ seats.
Lingering uncertainty centers on the final certified totals and whether any bloc reaches an outright majority, though historical patterns and current margins limit realistic reversal scenarios.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
市場開放時間： Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
交易量
$25,030結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ETIn October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Consistent polling deficits for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals) throughout the 2026 campaign, combined with exit polls and preliminary results from the September 13 election, underpin trader consensus against a majority.**
Surveys from mid-2026 onward showed the centre-left opposition bloc holding leads of 5–10+ points, translating to roughly 175–185 seats versus under 175 for the Tidö group in most projections. Late narrowing narrowed the gap to 3–5 points but left the Tidö parties short in SVT/Valu and Novus exit polls (opposition at 51.3%, Tidö at 46.8–47.0%). Supplementary counting of advance, postal, and overseas ballots has further reduced any remaining path, with models indicating the opposition lead is now effectively insurmountable for 175+ seats.
Lingering uncertainty centers on the final certified totals and whether any bloc reaches an outright majority, though historical patterns and current margins limit realistic reversal scenarios.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
交易量
$25,030結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET**Consistent polling deficits for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals) throughout the 2026 campaign, combined with exit polls and preliminary results from the September 13 election, underpin trader consensus against a majority.** Surveys from mid-2026 onward showed the centre-left opposition bloc holding leads of 5–10+ points, translating to roughly 175–185 seats versus under 175 for the Tidö group in most projections. Late narrowing narrowed the gap to 3–5 points but left the Tidö parties short in SVT/Valu and Novus exit polls (opposition at 51.3%, Tidö at 46.8–47.0%). Supplementary counting of advance, postal, and overseas ballots has further reduced any remaining path, with models indicating the opposition lead is now effectively insurmountable for 175+ seats. Lingering uncertainty centers on the final certified totals and whether any bloc reaches an outright majority, though historical patterns and current margins limit realistic reversal scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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