The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 23%
DeepSeek 22%
Moonshot 17%
阿里巴巴 17%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
23%
DeepSeek
22%
Moonshot
17%
阿里巴巴
17%
SpaceXAI
16%
亞馬遜
16%
微軟
16%
騰訊
15%
OpenAI
14%
Nvidia
14%
小米
14%
Mistral
14%
Anthropic
14%
美團
14%
Meta
13%
Z.ai
13%
字節跳動
13%
Thinky
13%
StepFun
13%
MiniMax
12%
百度
11%
Google 23%
DeepSeek 22%
Moonshot 17%
阿里巴巴 17%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
$0 交易量
23%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
22%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
17%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
17%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
16%
亞馬遜
$0 交易量
16%
微軟
$29 交易量
16%
騰訊
$0 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
14%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
14%
小米
$0 交易量
14%
Mistral
$0 交易量
14%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
14%
美團
$0 交易量
14%
Meta
$0 交易量
13%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
13%
字節跳動
$0 交易量
13%
Thinky
$0 交易量
13%
StepFun
$0 交易量
13%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
12%
百度
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$29結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$29結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThe closely matched 50% implied probabilities across multiple unspecified outcomes highlight intense uncertainty in the race for the top AI model by end of November, driven by rapid iteration among leading labs and fluctuating benchmark results. Competitive dynamics favor agile developers like DeepSeek and ByteDance, whose recent large language model releases have narrowed gaps in reasoning, multilingual performance, and efficiency against established players such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Key differentiators include demonstrated capabilities in controllable generation under style constraints, training data scale, and inference optimizations, with trader sentiment reflecting ongoing model updates and potential surprises from Chinese firms or open-weight contenders. Upcoming developer conferences and benchmark releases could shift positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions