Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Nvidia 24%
小米 21%
OpenAI 21%
阿里巴巴 19%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Nvidia
24%
小米
21%
OpenAI
21%
阿里巴巴
19%
美團
19%
Mistral
17%
Meta
15%
百度
15%
字節跳動
15%
Anthropic
14%
Z.ai
14%
騰訊
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
StepFun
14%
亞馬遜
13%
MiniMax
13%
微軟
11%
11%
Moonshot
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Thinky
10%
Nvidia 24%
小米 21%
OpenAI 21%
阿里巴巴 19%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Nvidia
$0 交易量
24%
小米
$0 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
21%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
19%
美團
$0 交易量
19%
Mistral
$0 交易量
17%
Meta
$0 交易量
15%
百度
$0 交易量
15%
字節跳動
$0 交易量
15%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
14%
騰訊
$0 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
14%
StepFun
$0 交易量
14%
亞馬遜
$0 交易量
13%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
13%
微軟
$0 交易量
11%
$0 交易量
11%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
11%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
10%
Thinky
$0 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETTrader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions