Recent model releases have intensified competition for third place among AI labs by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra establishing a clear top tier on benchmarks like BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and ongoing DeepMind updates provide steady gains in integration and efficiency, while Chinese labs such as MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Moonshot advance through cost-effective mixture-of-experts architectures and reported revenue growth. Trader sentiment reflects this fragmentation, as no single contender exceeds modest implied probabilities amid rapid iteration, safety concerns from the FLI Index, and shifting open-weight performance. Key catalysts ahead include further capability demonstrations, enterprise adoption metrics, and any major regulatory or partnership announcements before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 29%
OpenAI 25%
MiniMax 25%
Thinky 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
29%
OpenAI
25%
MiniMax
25%
Thinky
22%
字節跳動
20%
Mistral
19%
百度
16%
SpaceXAI
16%
StepFun
15%
Nvidia
15%
Meta
14%
亞馬遜
14%
美團
14%
Moonshot
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Z.ai
14%
騰訊
14%
小米
13%
微軟
13%
阿里巴巴
12%
Anthropic
10%
Google 29%
OpenAI 25%
MiniMax 25%
Thinky 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
$0 交易量
29%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
25%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
25%
Thinky
$0 交易量
22%
字節跳動
$0 交易量
20%
Mistral
$0 交易量
19%
百度
$0 交易量
16%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
16%
StepFun
$0 交易量
15%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
15%
Meta
$0 交易量
14%
亞馬遜
$0 交易量
14%
美團
$0 交易量
14%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
14%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
14%
騰訊
$0 交易量
14%
小米
$0 交易量
13%
微軟
$0 交易量
13%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
12%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for third place among AI labs by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra establishing a clear top tier on benchmarks like BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and ongoing DeepMind updates provide steady gains in integration and efficiency, while Chinese labs such as MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Moonshot advance through cost-effective mixture-of-experts architectures and reported revenue growth. Trader sentiment reflects this fragmentation, as no single contender exceeds modest implied probabilities amid rapid iteration, safety concerns from the FLI Index, and shifting open-weight performance. Key catalysts ahead include further capability demonstrations, enterprise adoption metrics, and any major regulatory or partnership announcements before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for third place among AI labs by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra establishing a clear top tier on benchmarks like BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and ongoing DeepMind updates provide steady gains in integration and efficiency, while Chinese labs such as MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Moonshot advance through cost-effective mixture-of-experts architectures and reported revenue growth. Trader sentiment reflects this fragmentation, as no single contender exceeds modest implied probabilities amid rapid iteration, safety concerns from the FLI Index, and shifting open-weight performance. Key catalysts ahead include further capability demonstrations, enterprise adoption metrics, and any major regulatory or partnership announcements before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRecent model releases have intensified competition for third place among AI labs by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra establishing a clear top tier on benchmarks like BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and ongoing DeepMind updates provide steady gains in integration and efficiency, while Chinese labs such as MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Moonshot advance through cost-effective mixture-of-experts architectures and reported revenue growth. Trader sentiment reflects this fragmentation, as no single contender exceeds modest implied probabilities amid rapid iteration, safety concerns from the FLI Index, and shifting open-weight performance. Key catalysts ahead include further capability demonstrations, enterprise adoption metrics, and any major regulatory or partnership announcements before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions