Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and long tenure representing Idaho’s 2nd district anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and eastern counties have consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic fundraising, minimal national campaign spending, and the absence of competitive polling reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in Ada County or unforeseen late developments, though the structural partisan lean and Simpson’s incumbency create substantial barriers to an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,525 交易量
$32,525 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$32,525 交易量
$32,525 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$13,846 交易量
95%
民主黨
$18,679 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and long tenure representing Idaho’s 2nd district anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and eastern counties have consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic fundraising, minimal national campaign spending, and the absence of competitive polling reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in Ada County or unforeseen late developments, though the structural partisan lean and Simpson’s incumbency create substantial barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$32,525結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and long tenure representing Idaho’s 2nd district anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and eastern counties have consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic fundraising, minimal national campaign spending, and the absence of competitive polling reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in Ada County or unforeseen late developments, though the structural partisan lean and Simpson’s incumbency create substantial barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,525結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mike Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and long tenure representing Idaho’s 2nd district anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and eastern counties have consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic fundraising, minimal national campaign spending, and the absence of competitive polling reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout in Ada County or unforeseen late developments, though the structural partisan lean and Simpson’s incumbency create substantial barriers to an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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