**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity. Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月9日華沙的最高溫度？
8月9日華沙的最高溫度？
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 17%
27°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
17%
25°C
47%
26°C
29%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 17%
27°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
21°C or below
$435 交易量
1%
22°C
$752 交易量
1%
23°C
$243 交易量
3%
24°C
$972 交易量
17%
25°C
$918 交易量
47%
26°C
$514 交易量
29%
27°C
$367 交易量
4%
28°C
$470 交易量
2%
29°C
$180 交易量
1%
30°C
$182 交易量
<1%
31°C or higher
$242 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity.
Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$5,274結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity.
Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,274結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Current forecasts position 25°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 9, 2026, with market-implied odds at 46.5%, followed by 26°C at 29.0%.** These outcomes align with consensus from sources including the BBC (26°C under sunny conditions and light winds), the UK Met Office (24°C), and climatological August averages of 23–25°C. Scientific drivers include moderate solar heating under high pressure or weak northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and negligible cold-air advection, allowing daytime highs to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms without triggering stronger convective activity. Recent model runs and short-range updates have stabilized expectations in this narrow band, with low probabilities assigned to extremes (under 1% for 28°C or higher) reflecting minimal risk of heat advection or clear-sky amplification. Traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty range typical of late-summer Polish conditions, where official agency guidance from IMGW and ensemble forecasts indicate only modest day-to-day variability. Upcoming updates from European and global models ahead of the 24-hour window will determine whether the distribution shifts toward 26°C or holds near 25°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions