Recent forecasts for Manila on September 20 indicate scattered thunderstorms and high humidity under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with model consensus pointing to daytime maxima near 30–32°C. Persistent cloud cover and afternoon convection from tropical moisture typically suppress peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while the urban heat island effect in the metro area can add 1–2°C locally. Historical September data show average highs around 31°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C, explaining why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 29°C and 34°C. Short-range model runs remain sensitive to exact timing of rainfall and steering winds, introducing genuine uncertainty around the daily maximum that will resolve with updated guidance from PAGASA and international ensembles in the next 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月20日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月20日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 36%
35°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
9%
30°C
12%
31°C
14%
32°C
37%
33°C
37%
34°C
36%
35°C
21%
36°C
16%
37°C
4%
38°C或以上
<1%
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 36%
35°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
28°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
29°C
$0 交易量
9%
30°C
$2 交易量
12%
31°C
$0 交易量
14%
32°C
$0 交易量
37%
33°C
$0 交易量
37%
34°C
$0 交易量
36%
35°C
$0 交易量
21%
36°C
$0 交易量
16%
37°C
$0 交易量
4%
38°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Manila on September 20 indicate scattered thunderstorms and high humidity under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with model consensus pointing to daytime maxima near 30–32°C. Persistent cloud cover and afternoon convection from tropical moisture typically suppress peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while the urban heat island effect in the metro area can add 1–2°C locally. Historical September data show average highs around 31°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C, explaining why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 29°C and 34°C. Short-range model runs remain sensitive to exact timing of rainfall and steering winds, introducing genuine uncertainty around the daily maximum that will resolve with updated guidance from PAGASA and international ensembles in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$2結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Manila on September 20 indicate scattered thunderstorms and high humidity under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with model consensus pointing to daytime maxima near 30–32°C. Persistent cloud cover and afternoon convection from tropical moisture typically suppress peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while the urban heat island effect in the metro area can add 1–2°C locally. Historical September data show average highs around 31°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C, explaining why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 29°C and 34°C. Short-range model runs remain sensitive to exact timing of rainfall and steering winds, introducing genuine uncertainty around the daily maximum that will resolve with updated guidance from PAGASA and international ensembles in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETRecent forecasts for Manila on September 20 indicate scattered thunderstorms and high humidity under the influence of the southwest monsoon, with model consensus pointing to daytime maxima near 30–32°C. Persistent cloud cover and afternoon convection from tropical moisture typically suppress peak temperatures by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while the urban heat island effect in the metro area can add 1–2°C locally. Historical September data show average highs around 31°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C, explaining why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 29°C and 34°C. Short-range model runs remain sensitive to exact timing of rainfall and steering winds, introducing genuine uncertainty around the daily maximum that will resolve with updated guidance from PAGASA and international ensembles in the next 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions