Forecast consensus from Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance and GFS ensembles places Beijing’s September 18 maximum near 28–29 °C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly flow, and modest moisture that caps daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Latest observations around midday reached 26–28 °C with dew points near 18 °C, consistent with the narrow probability band traders have assigned. Historical mid-September averages hover near 26 °C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly that reinforces the 28 °C outcome as the modal resolution. Updated model runs and official hourly reports through late afternoon remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift marginal probability between the two leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日北京最高溫度？
9月18日北京最高溫度？
28°C 67%
29°C 24%
30°C 2%
31°C <1%
$37,977 交易量
$37,977 交易量
2026-09-18
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
65%
29°C
31%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
28°C 67%
29°C 24%
30°C 2%
31°C <1%
$37,977 交易量
$37,977 交易量
2026-09-18
23°C或以下
$1,579 交易量
<1%
24°C
$2,381 交易量
<1%
25°C
$4,701 交易量
<1%
26°C
$2,921 交易量
<1%
27°C
$8,008 交易量
<1%
28°C
$5,076 交易量
65%
29°C
$4,305 交易量
31%
30°C
$4,913 交易量
2%
31°C
$2,099 交易量
<1%
32°C
$1,044 交易量
<1%
33°C或以上
$950 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance and GFS ensembles places Beijing’s September 18 maximum near 28–29 °C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly flow, and modest moisture that caps daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Latest observations around midday reached 26–28 °C with dew points near 18 °C, consistent with the narrow probability band traders have assigned. Historical mid-September averages hover near 26 °C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly that reinforces the 28 °C outcome as the modal resolution. Updated model runs and official hourly reports through late afternoon remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift marginal probability between the two leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$37,977結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance and GFS ensembles places Beijing’s September 18 maximum near 28–29 °C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly flow, and modest moisture that caps daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Latest observations around midday reached 26–28 °C with dew points near 18 °C, consistent with the narrow probability band traders have assigned. Historical mid-September averages hover near 26 °C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly that reinforces the 28 °C outcome as the modal resolution. Updated model runs and official hourly reports through late afternoon remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift marginal probability between the two leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$37,977結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast consensus from Chinese Meteorological Administration guidance and GFS ensembles places Beijing’s September 18 maximum near 28–29 °C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly flow, and modest moisture that caps daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Latest observations around midday reached 26–28 °C with dew points near 18 °C, consistent with the narrow probability band traders have assigned. Historical mid-September averages hover near 26 °C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly that reinforces the 28 °C outcome as the modal resolution. Updated model runs and official hourly reports through late afternoon remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift marginal probability between the two leading bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions