Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private services converge on a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest trading in the 84–85 °F bin, followed by the adjacent 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No significant warm or cool air advection is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the long-term average and limiting the likelihood of extremes above 88 °F or below 82 °F. Traders are monitoring the next National Weather Service forecast update for any shifts in the 850-hPa temperature or boundary-layer moisture fields that could alter the expected maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日芝加哥的最高溫度？
8月4日芝加哥的最高溫度？
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 3%
最新
$17,416 交易量
最新
$17,416 交易量
2026-08-04
華氏75度或以下
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
50%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
華氏94度或更高
<1%
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 3%
最新
$17,416 交易量
最新
$17,416 交易量
2026-08-04
華氏75度或以下
$533 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$476 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$2,300 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$1,512 交易量
<1%
82-83°F
$2,978 交易量
18%
84-85°F
$2,703 交易量
50%
86-87°F
$1,810 交易量
26%
88-89°F
$2,186 交易量
3%
90-91°F
$1,683 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$593 交易量
<1%
華氏94度或更高
$643 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private services converge on a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest trading in the 84–85 °F bin, followed by the adjacent 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No significant warm or cool air advection is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the long-term average and limiting the likelihood of extremes above 88 °F or below 82 °F. Traders are monitoring the next National Weather Service forecast update for any shifts in the 850-hPa temperature or boundary-layer moisture fields that could alter the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
交易量
$17,416結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private services converge on a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest trading in the 84–85 °F bin, followed by the adjacent 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No significant warm or cool air advection is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the long-term average and limiting the likelihood of extremes above 88 °F or below 82 °F. Traders are monitoring the next National Weather Service forecast update for any shifts in the 850-hPa temperature or boundary-layer moisture fields that could alter the expected maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$17,416結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETForecast models from the National Weather Service and private services converge on a peak temperature near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest trading in the 84–85 °F bin, followed by the adjacent 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No significant warm or cool air advection is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the long-term average and limiting the likelihood of extremes above 88 °F or below 82 °F. Traders are monitoring the next National Weather Service forecast update for any shifts in the 850-hPa temperature or boundary-layer moisture fields that could alter the expected maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions