Recent model guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicates Beijing highs near 32–34 °C on August 5 under typical early-August monsoon conditions of high humidity and weak steering flows that limit strong heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34 % implied probability for 36 °C and 26 % for 35 °C, incorporates a modest upside bias alongside this guidance, as convective activity or variable cloud cover could either suppress peaks or allow brief clearing. Key differentiating factors include local boundary-layer mixing, potential thunderstorm timing, and diurnal temperature range, all of which remain sensitive to the next model cycles. Updated forecasts and real-time observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日北京最高溫度？
8月5日北京最高溫度？
36°C 36%
35°C 25%
37°C 21%
34°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-05
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
6%
34°C
12%
35°C
25%
36°C
36%
37°C
21%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
1%
36°C 36%
35°C 25%
37°C 21%
34°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-05
29°C or below
$155 交易量
<1%
30°C
$338 交易量
<1%
31°C
$229 交易量
1%
32°C
$550 交易量
4%
33°C
$291 交易量
6%
34°C
$170 交易量
12%
35°C
$272 交易量
25%
36°C
$636 交易量
36%
37°C
$584 交易量
21%
38°C
$202 交易量
4%
39°C or higher
$56 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicates Beijing highs near 32–34 °C on August 5 under typical early-August monsoon conditions of high humidity and weak steering flows that limit strong heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34 % implied probability for 36 °C and 26 % for 35 °C, incorporates a modest upside bias alongside this guidance, as convective activity or variable cloud cover could either suppress peaks or allow brief clearing. Key differentiating factors include local boundary-layer mixing, potential thunderstorm timing, and diurnal temperature range, all of which remain sensitive to the next model cycles. Updated forecasts and real-time observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$3,483結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicates Beijing highs near 32–34 °C on August 5 under typical early-August monsoon conditions of high humidity and weak steering flows that limit strong heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34 % implied probability for 36 °C and 26 % for 35 °C, incorporates a modest upside bias alongside this guidance, as convective activity or variable cloud cover could either suppress peaks or allow brief clearing. Key differentiating factors include local boundary-layer mixing, potential thunderstorm timing, and diurnal temperature range, all of which remain sensitive to the next model cycles. Updated forecasts and real-time observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,483結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETRecent model guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicates Beijing highs near 32–34 °C on August 5 under typical early-August monsoon conditions of high humidity and weak steering flows that limit strong heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34 % implied probability for 36 °C and 26 % for 35 °C, incorporates a modest upside bias alongside this guidance, as convective activity or variable cloud cover could either suppress peaks or allow brief clearing. Key differentiating factors include local boundary-layer mixing, potential thunderstorm timing, and diurnal temperature range, all of which remain sensitive to the next model cycles. Updated forecasts and real-time observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions