Adama Barrow, the incumbent National People's Party president seeking a third term, leads the market at 74% amid a fragmented opposition field ahead of the December 5, 2026, first-past-the-post vote. Recent August opinion surveys showed Barrow ahead on perceived electability at 51%, well above Ousainou Darboe of the United Democratic Party at 23%, with vote intention placing Barrow at 32% against Darboe's 25% and Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 19%. September power blackouts triggered protests in Banjul and surrounding areas, prompting Barrow to declare a national emergency and announce new generation capacity, while the Independent Electoral Commission set candidate nominations for November 3–14. Trader pricing aligns with Barrow's structural advantages as sitting president and the divided challenge from Darboe and lower-polling figures such as Bakary K. Badjie, Essa Faal, and Mama Kandeh.