Current forecasts from multiple models project a daily minimum near 21–23°C for Chengdu on September 1, consistent with early-September climatology and recent high-pressure dominance that limits strong radiative cooling. Trader emphasis on the 19°C-or-below outcome at 44% implied probability likely reflects residual model spread, possible overnight cloud or moisture increases that could enhance cooling, and the narrow resolution window before the close of trading. Higher bins clustered around 22–23°C capture the central tendency of guidance, while warmer outcomes remain discounted given the absence of strong warm advection or subsidence warming signals. Updated official observations and final model runs over the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles near the forecast consensus or dips into the cooler tail.