**Official NOAA observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), the station typically used for these markets, recorded a daily maximum of approximately 85°F on August 29, 2026.** Hourly data showed peaks near 29.4°C (84.9°F) in the early afternoon under mostly clear skies with moderate southwest winds, consistent with the market's near-100% implied probability for the 84-85°F bin. This outcome followed several days of elevated heat and humidity across Southern California driven by high pressure and a warm Pacific, which produced downtown highs near 96°F but allowed stronger marine-layer influence and sea breezes to cap coastal readings at LAX. Ensemble forecasts and NWS point guidance aligned closely on this moderation, narrowing uncertainty to a narrow range that traders rapidly priced to certainty once preliminary observations confirmed the peak. The only realistic scenarios that could have altered the result involve post-publication revisions to the official LAX record (rare after initial quality control) or an atypical shift in the exact timing of the sea breeze that pushed the maximum into an adjacent bin—neither of which materialized. With the date concluded and data verified, the market reflects settled scientific measurements rather than ongoing forecast uncertainty.