**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a typical late-August pattern for Miami, with daytime heating building temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s before afternoon convection develops.** Official NWS guidance points to a high near 88°F, with some descriptions noting lower 90s possible before storms, consistent with the market's leading 90-91°F bin (54.5% implied probability) and nearby 88-89°F (26.5%) and 92-93°F (15%) outcomes. Key drivers include abundant tropical moisture, light east-southeast winds, and strong diurnal heating over land that triggers scattered to likely thunderstorms mainly after 2 p.m. These storms often cause the temperature to peak midday or early afternoon and then fall several degrees, limiting the daily maximum. Heat indices reach 105–107°F, but actual air temperatures remain moderated by the sea breeze influence and cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for late August (average highs ~87–90°F) without anomalous ridging or suppressed convection that would push readings higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus model runs and recent NWS updates showing this capped range, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes below 88°F or above 93°F given the stable summer regime. Updated afternoon observations or any shifts in storm timing could refine the exact maximum before resolution.