Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian meteorological centers converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20°C for August 15 under partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwesterly flow that limits afternoon heating. Persistent cloud cover and scattered light showers, similar to those observed on August 13–14, continue to suppress temperatures 2–3°C below the long-term August climatological average of 22°C. Model spreads remain narrow, with most runs clustering between 18–21°C, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 19–20°C outcomes while underscoring residual uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 19%
18°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
26%
20°C
45%
21°C
19%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 19%
18°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$89 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$19 Обс.
5%
17°C
$402 Обс.
2%
18°C
$206 Обс.
7%
19°C
$321 Обс.
26%
20°C
$299 Обс.
45%
21°C
$251 Обс.
19%
22°C
$245 Обс.
5%
23°C
$5 Обс.
5%
24°C
$58 Обс.
<1%
25°C or higher
$58 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian meteorological centers converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20°C for August 15 under partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwesterly flow that limits afternoon heating. Persistent cloud cover and scattered light showers, similar to those observed on August 13–14, continue to suppress temperatures 2–3°C below the long-term August climatological average of 22°C. Model spreads remain narrow, with most runs clustering between 18–21°C, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 19–20°C outcomes while underscoring residual uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,953Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian meteorological centers converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20°C for August 15 under partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwesterly flow that limits afternoon heating. Persistent cloud cover and scattered light showers, similar to those observed on August 13–14, continue to suppress temperatures 2–3°C below the long-term August climatological average of 22°C. Model spreads remain narrow, with most runs clustering between 18–21°C, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 19–20°C outcomes while underscoring residual uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,953Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian meteorological centers converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20°C for August 15 under partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwesterly flow that limits afternoon heating. Persistent cloud cover and scattered light showers, similar to those observed on August 13–14, continue to suppress temperatures 2–3°C below the long-term August climatological average of 22°C. Model spreads remain narrow, with most runs clustering between 18–21°C, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 19–20°C outcomes while underscoring residual uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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