Mexico City's high temperature on August 23 is expected to fall in the narrow 20–22°C range, where market-implied probabilities cluster most tightly, because the city's 2,240 m elevation and ongoing rainy-season conditions limit daytime heating. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from tropical waves reduce incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling and moderating surface energy budgets. These factors produce only modest day-to-day variability around the climatological August average of roughly 23°C, with small differences in convective timing, boundary-layer moisture, or wind patterns determining whether the peak reaches 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C. Traders have therefore assigned comparable weight to these adjacent outcomes rather than favoring extremes outside the typical range.