**Trader consensus strongly favors 27°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 30, reflecting official forecasts and numerical model guidance showing overnight lows of 27–29°C under persistent warm, humid southerly flow.** Current observations and ensembles from agencies indicate daytime peaks near 31–32°C with widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and dew points near 27°C that limit radiative cooling. Historical late-August climatology supports minimums clustered around 26–28°C, and no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected before midnight. The market-implied probability above 97% for exactly 27°C aligns with this tight forecast envelope. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-model shift toward stronger outflow or heavier nocturnal rain bands, though such revisions remain low-probability given the stable pattern.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
27°C 98%
25°C 3%
26°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,783 ปริมาณ
$12,783 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
98%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 98%
25°C 3%
26°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,783 ปริมาณ
$12,783 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
$103 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$108 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$108 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$22 ปริมาณ
3%
26°C
$635 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$3,658 ปริมาณ
98%
28°C
$6,488 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$266 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$1,168 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$118 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C or higher
$108 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 27°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 30, reflecting official forecasts and numerical model guidance showing overnight lows of 27–29°C under persistent warm, humid southerly flow.**
Current observations and ensembles from agencies indicate daytime peaks near 31–32°C with widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and dew points near 27°C that limit radiative cooling. Historical late-August climatology supports minimums clustered around 26–28°C, and no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected before midnight. The market-implied probability above 97% for exactly 27°C aligns with this tight forecast envelope.
A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-model shift toward stronger outflow or heavier nocturnal rain bands, though such revisions remain low-probability given the stable pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,783วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 27°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 30, reflecting official forecasts and numerical model guidance showing overnight lows of 27–29°C under persistent warm, humid southerly flow.**
Current observations and ensembles from agencies indicate daytime peaks near 31–32°C with widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and dew points near 27°C that limit radiative cooling. Historical late-August climatology supports minimums clustered around 26–28°C, and no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected before midnight. The market-implied probability above 97% for exactly 27°C aligns with this tight forecast envelope.
A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-model shift toward stronger outflow or heavier nocturnal rain bands, though such revisions remain low-probability given the stable pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,783วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 27°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 30, reflecting official forecasts and numerical model guidance showing overnight lows of 27–29°C under persistent warm, humid southerly flow.** Current observations and ensembles from agencies indicate daytime peaks near 31–32°C with widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and dew points near 27°C that limit radiative cooling. Historical late-August climatology supports minimums clustered around 26–28°C, and no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected before midnight. The market-implied probability above 97% for exactly 27°C aligns with this tight forecast envelope. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-model shift toward stronger outflow or heavier nocturnal rain bands, though such revisions remain low-probability given the stable pattern.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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