Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting models indicate a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle associated with a frontal boundary, well below the late-August normal near 30°C. This setup, with high humidity and limited solar insolation, has driven the overwhelming market-implied probability for a 26°C peak as the most likely outcome based on observed conditions and short-range guidance. The strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current atmospheric stability and minimal warming potential through the afternoon. A rapid clearing trend or stronger southerly flow could push readings toward 27–28°C and challenge the positioning, though ensemble spreads show low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
26°C 99%
27°C 2%
28°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$65,285 ปริมาณ
$65,285 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
99%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99%
27°C 2%
28°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$65,285 ปริมาณ
$65,285 ปริมาณ
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$2,920 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$5,589 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$9,000 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$8,980 ปริมาณ
99%
27°C
$7,520 ปริมาณ
2%
28°C
$8,633 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$6,508 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$4,841 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$1,225 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C
$2,650 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C or higher
$7,419 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting models indicate a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle associated with a frontal boundary, well below the late-August normal near 30°C. This setup, with high humidity and limited solar insolation, has driven the overwhelming market-implied probability for a 26°C peak as the most likely outcome based on observed conditions and short-range guidance. The strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current atmospheric stability and minimal warming potential through the afternoon. A rapid clearing trend or stronger southerly flow could push readings toward 27–28°C and challenge the positioning, though ensemble spreads show low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,285วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting models indicate a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle associated with a frontal boundary, well below the late-August normal near 30°C. This setup, with high humidity and limited solar insolation, has driven the overwhelming market-implied probability for a 26°C peak as the most likely outcome based on observed conditions and short-range guidance. The strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current atmospheric stability and minimal warming potential through the afternoon. A rapid clearing trend or stronger southerly flow could push readings toward 27–28°C and challenge the positioning, though ensemble spreads show low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,285วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting models indicate a maximum of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle associated with a frontal boundary, well below the late-August normal near 30°C. This setup, with high humidity and limited solar insolation, has driven the overwhelming market-implied probability for a 26°C peak as the most likely outcome based on observed conditions and short-range guidance. The strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of current atmospheric stability and minimal warming potential through the afternoon. A rapid clearing trend or stronger southerly flow could push readings toward 27–28°C and challenge the positioning, though ensemble spreads show low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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