Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including the Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather points to overnight lows of 27–28°C on August 20 amid persistent showers, high humidity, and weak steering winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around those thresholds. Cloud cover and rainfall timing limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect and background climate warming trend—reinforced by normal-to-above-normal seasonal guidance—reduce chances of drops to 26°C or below. Model spreads in precipitation timing and wind shifts represent the main variables that could differentiate outcomes, with updated runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?
28°C 36%
31°C 28%
27°C 28%
26°C 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 20, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
12%
24°C
1%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
36%
29°C
15%
30°C
9%
31°C
28%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 36%
31°C 28%
27°C 28%
26°C 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 20, 2026
22°C or below
$22 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$49 ปริมาณ
12%
24°C
$6 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
28°C
$16 ปริมาณ
36%
29°C
$30 ปริมาณ
15%
30°C
$26 ปริมาณ
9%
31°C
$27 ปริมาณ
28%
32°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including the Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather points to overnight lows of 27–28°C on August 20 amid persistent showers, high humidity, and weak steering winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around those thresholds. Cloud cover and rainfall timing limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect and background climate warming trend—reinforced by normal-to-above-normal seasonal guidance—reduce chances of drops to 26°C or below. Model spreads in precipitation timing and wind shifts represent the main variables that could differentiate outcomes, with updated runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including the Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather points to overnight lows of 27–28°C on August 20 amid persistent showers, high humidity, and weak steering winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around those thresholds. Cloud cover and rainfall timing limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect and background climate warming trend—reinforced by normal-to-above-normal seasonal guidance—reduce chances of drops to 26°C or below. Model spreads in precipitation timing and wind shifts represent the main variables that could differentiate outcomes, with updated runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including the Hong Kong Observatory and AccuWeather points to overnight lows of 27–28°C on August 20 amid persistent showers, high humidity, and weak steering winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around those thresholds. Cloud cover and rainfall timing limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect and background climate warming trend—reinforced by normal-to-above-normal seasonal guidance—reduce chances of drops to 26°C or below. Model spreads in precipitation timing and wind shifts represent the main variables that could differentiate outcomes, with updated runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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