Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
12°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
ใหม่
$88,183 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$88,183 ปริมาณ
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
99%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
ใหม่
$88,183 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$88,183 ปริมาณ
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$339 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$850 ปริมาณ
<1%
8°C
$1,498 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$3,896 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$11,605 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$32,898 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$18,745 ปริมาณ
99%
13°C
$7,680 ปริมาณ
1%
14°C
$4,732 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$4,105 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,836 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$88,183วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$88,183วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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