**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.** Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
28°C 83%
27°C 14%
26°C 2%
25°C 1.0%
ใหม่
$27,863 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$27,863 ปริมาณ
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
14%
28°C
83%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 83%
27°C 14%
26°C 2%
25°C 1.0%
ใหม่
$27,863 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$27,863 ปริมาณ
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
$1,049 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$1,990 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$3,609 ปริมาณ
1%
26°C
$3,295 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$5,215 ปริมาณ
14%
28°C
$4,506 ปริมาณ
83%
29°C
$5,370 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$715 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$506 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C
$545 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,063 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.**
Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band.
Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,863วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.**
Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band.
Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,863วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent summer monsoon conditions and high humidity in Hong Kong are anchoring the overnight low near 28°C on August 18, 2026, with the market assigning 79% implied probability to that outcome.** Subtropical maritime air under typical August monsoon flow maintains relative humidity of 80–90%, which sharply reduces radiative cooling after sunset. Scattered showers and persistent cloud cover further suppress temperature drops by limiting longwave radiation loss, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus placing the minimum at 27–28°C. Daytime readings near 30–32°C and limited diurnal range reinforce this narrow band. Trader positioning clusters tightly on 27–28°C because small shifts in shower timing or brief cloud breaks can alter the recorded minimum by only 1°C at the official reference station. Historical August climatology shows average lows around 26–27°C, but current conditions and short-term forecasts support the slightly higher consensus. No major typhoon or frontal system is altering the pattern, keeping probabilities stable ahead of final resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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