**Official forecasts from Environment Canada peg Toronto’s high at 23°C today under mostly cloudy skies with periods of showers and southwest winds strengthening to 20 km/h.** This positions 23°C as the modal outcome in trader consensus (40% implied probability), followed closely by 22°C (29.5%) and 24°C (18.5%). Persistent cloud cover and scattered precipitation are suppressing daytime heating relative to the late-August climatological average high near 25°C. Current observations at Pearson Airport show morning temperatures around 20°C with high humidity (dew points near 17°C), consistent with limited insolation and modest warm-air advection. Model guidance and agency briefings indicate the peak should occur in the early-to-mid afternoon before any showers intensify, keeping the maximum within a narrow 22–24°C envelope. Traders appear to weight the authoritative 23°C call most heavily while pricing modest uncertainty from timing of clouds or localized clearing that could allow a brief 24°C spike or keep readings capped at 22°C. Lower-probability outcomes above 25°C or below 21°C reflect the low likelihood of significant model shifts or measurement revisions before resolution.