Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs for New York City on August 31 point to a maximum temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s, with 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins holding nearly equal market-implied odds. A post-frontal air mass, northeast flow, and increasing cloud cover are limiting diurnal heating compared to prior days, while light winds and residual moisture from recent showers moderate afternoon peaks near the long-term August average of 81°F. Model spread remains modest, centered on 79–82°F, though any earlier clearing or stronger southerly advection could push readings higher. The market will resolve on official Central Park observations once the calendar day ends.