Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father and injured him, has shaped trader views on any departure from Iran. Credible reporting and Israeli intelligence assessments place him inside the country, likely in a secure Tehran-area shelter or Qom facility while recovering from severe wounds to his legs, face, and arms. Regime sources attribute the lack of appearances, including at Ali Khamenei’s July funeral, to security risks and medical needs rather than exit from Iran; unverified claims of transfer to Russia or elsewhere have been denied by multiple officials. No confirmed evidence of departure has emerged through September 2026, keeping implied probabilities low ahead of potential catalysts such as verified media reports, public sightings, or shifts in IRGC influence over decision-making.