Anthropic’s staggered 2026 release cadence has left Claude Haiku 4.5—launched October 15, 2025—as the sole model still on the prior generation while Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5.1 variants all reached users between June and early September. Traders are therefore pricing the next Haiku refresh (expected as Haiku 5) against the company’s historical pattern of delivering the lightweight tier roughly two to four months after mid-tier updates, tempered by the absence of any official timeline, benchmark leaks, or developer-preview signals. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s typical fall developer conference window and potential competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants optimized for low-latency use cases. The market-implied odds reflect this combination of clear product-family logic and limited concrete confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/10/15
10月15日
45%
10月31日
58%
12月31日
56%
$8,986 Vol.
10月15日
$0 Vol.
45%
10月31日
$905 Vol.
58%
12月31日
$4,330 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s staggered 2026 release cadence has left Claude Haiku 4.5—launched October 15, 2025—as the sole model still on the prior generation while Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5.1 variants all reached users between June and early September. Traders are therefore pricing the next Haiku refresh (expected as Haiku 5) against the company’s historical pattern of delivering the lightweight tier roughly two to four months after mid-tier updates, tempered by the absence of any official timeline, benchmark leaks, or developer-preview signals. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s typical fall developer conference window and potential competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants optimized for low-latency use cases. The market-implied odds reflect this combination of clear product-family logic and limited concrete confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
音量
$8,986終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s staggered 2026 release cadence has left Claude Haiku 4.5—launched October 15, 2025—as the sole model still on the prior generation while Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5.1 variants all reached users between June and early September. Traders are therefore pricing the next Haiku refresh (expected as Haiku 5) against the company’s historical pattern of delivering the lightweight tier roughly two to four months after mid-tier updates, tempered by the absence of any official timeline, benchmark leaks, or developer-preview signals. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s typical fall developer conference window and potential competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants optimized for low-latency use cases. The market-implied odds reflect this combination of clear product-family logic and limited concrete confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$8,986終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s staggered 2026 release cadence has left Claude Haiku 4.5—launched October 15, 2025—as the sole model still on the prior generation while Sonnet 5, Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5.1 variants all reached users between June and early September. Traders are therefore pricing the next Haiku refresh (expected as Haiku 5) against the company’s historical pattern of delivering the lightweight tier roughly two to four months after mid-tier updates, tempered by the absence of any official timeline, benchmark leaks, or developer-preview signals. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s typical fall developer conference window and potential competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants optimized for low-latency use cases. The market-implied odds reflect this combination of clear product-family logic and limited concrete confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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