Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across major leaderboards, including composite benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra released days later. Multiple independent evaluations place Anthropic’s frontier models at the top, reflecting superior performance in long-context work and real-world capability metrics that traders weigh heavily for end-of-month resolution. OpenAI’s updates remain competitive on efficiency and specific domains like cybersecurity but have not closed the gap in overall rankings. With limited time remaining before September closes and no announced breakthroughs from other labs, market-implied odds reflect this established positioning and the stability of current capability demonstrations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 81%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 1.6%
Google 1.1%
$86,344 Vol.
$86,344 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
81%
OpenAI
17%
Meta
2%
1%
アリババ
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美団
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
テンセント
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 81%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 1.6%
Google 1.1%
$86,344 Vol.
$86,344 Vol.
2026/09/30
Anthropic
$37,572 Vol.
81%
OpenAI
$8,525 Vol.
17%
Meta
$7,909 Vol.
2%
$5,482 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$3,733 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$3,212 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,807 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
美団
$930 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across major leaderboards, including composite benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra released days later. Multiple independent evaluations place Anthropic’s frontier models at the top, reflecting superior performance in long-context work and real-world capability metrics that traders weigh heavily for end-of-month resolution. OpenAI’s updates remain competitive on efficiency and specific domains like cybersecurity but have not closed the gap in overall rankings. With limited time remaining before September closes and no announced breakthroughs from other labs, market-implied odds reflect this established positioning and the stability of current capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
音量
$86,344終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across major leaderboards, including composite benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra released days later. Multiple independent evaluations place Anthropic’s frontier models at the top, reflecting superior performance in long-context work and real-world capability metrics that traders weigh heavily for end-of-month resolution. OpenAI’s updates remain competitive on efficiency and specific domains like cybersecurity but have not closed the gap in overall rankings. With limited time remaining before September closes and no announced breakthroughs from other labs, market-implied odds reflect this established positioning and the stability of current capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$86,344終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAnthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has solidified its lead across major leaderboards, including composite benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra released days later. Multiple independent evaluations place Anthropic’s frontier models at the top, reflecting superior performance in long-context work and real-world capability metrics that traders weigh heavily for end-of-month resolution. OpenAI’s updates remain competitive on efficiency and specific domains like cybersecurity but have not closed the gap in overall rankings. With limited time remaining before September closes and no announced breakthroughs from other labs, market-implied odds reflect this established positioning and the stability of current capability demonstrations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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