Traders view the race for the top AI model by end of October as highly competitive, with Anthropic holding a narrow 54.5% implied probability edge while numerous labs cluster near 50%. This positioning stems from rapid progress across leading artificial intelligence developers, where large language model advancements in capabilities like style control, benchmark scores, and safety features create minimal separation. Differentiating factors include model alignment quality, developer ecosystem integration, and demonstrated performance on third-party evaluations, as Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and Moonshot trail due to ecosystem and regulatory hurdles. New releases or major benchmark updates in the coming weeks could shift the closely matched sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 62%
Meituan 18.8%
Microsoft 17.4%
Xiaomi 16.4%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
Anthropic
58%
Meituan
19%
Microsoft
17%
Xiaomi
16%
Meta
14%
OpenAI
13%
DeepSeek
13%
12%
Moonshot
11%
Alibaba
10%
SpaceXAI
8%
MiniMax
6%
StepFun
5%
Z.ai
4%
ByteDance
4%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Nvidia
8%
Tencent
17%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
1%
Anthropic 62%
Meituan 18.8%
Microsoft 17.4%
Xiaomi 16.4%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
Anthropic
$77 Vol.
58%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
19%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
17%
Xiaomi
$112 Vol.
16%
Meta
$39 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
13%
$39 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
8%
MiniMax
$79 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$39 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
8%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
17%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the top AI model by end of October as highly competitive, with Anthropic holding a narrow 54.5% implied probability edge while numerous labs cluster near 50%. This positioning stems from rapid progress across leading artificial intelligence developers, where large language model advancements in capabilities like style control, benchmark scores, and safety features create minimal separation. Differentiating factors include model alignment quality, developer ecosystem integration, and demonstrated performance on third-party evaluations, as Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and Moonshot trail due to ecosystem and regulatory hurdles. New releases or major benchmark updates in the coming weeks could shift the closely matched sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$1,568終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the top AI model by end of October as highly competitive, with Anthropic holding a narrow 54.5% implied probability edge while numerous labs cluster near 50%. This positioning stems from rapid progress across leading artificial intelligence developers, where large language model advancements in capabilities like style control, benchmark scores, and safety features create minimal separation. Differentiating factors include model alignment quality, developer ecosystem integration, and demonstrated performance on third-party evaluations, as Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and Moonshot trail due to ecosystem and regulatory hurdles. New releases or major benchmark updates in the coming weeks could shift the closely matched sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,568終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for the top AI model by end of October as highly competitive, with Anthropic holding a narrow 54.5% implied probability edge while numerous labs cluster near 50%. This positioning stems from rapid progress across leading artificial intelligence developers, where large language model advancements in capabilities like style control, benchmark scores, and safety features create minimal separation. Differentiating factors include model alignment quality, developer ecosystem integration, and demonstrated performance on third-party evaluations, as Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and Moonshot trail due to ecosystem and regulatory hurdles. New releases or major benchmark updates in the coming weeks could shift the closely matched sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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