Skip to main content
icon for # 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)

# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)

icon for # 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)

# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)

ByteDance 19%

Anthropic 19%

Google 16%

テンセント 16%

Polymarket
新規

ByteDance 19%

Anthropic 19%

Google 16%

テンセント 16%

Polymarket
新規
icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$0 Vol.

19%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$0 Vol.

19%

icon for Google

Google

$0 Vol.

16%

icon for テンセント

テンセント

$0 Vol.

16%

icon for Meta

Meta

$0 Vol.

15%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$0 Vol.

15%

icon for マイクロソフト

マイクロソフト

$0 Vol.

15%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$33 Vol.

14%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$0 Vol.

14%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$33 Vol.

14%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$33 Vol.

14%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$0 Vol.

13%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$33 Vol.

11%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$66 Vol.

8%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$33 Vol.

7%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$39 Vol.

6%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$39 Vol.

6%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$42 Vol.

5%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$42 Vol.

5%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$59 Vol.

4%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$39 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$492
終了日
2026/10/31
マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$492
終了日
2026/10/31
マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)」はPolymarket上の21個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ByteDance」で19%、次いで「Anthropic」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、19¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に19%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Aug 12, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)」で取引するには、このページに記載されている21個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)」の現在のフロントランナーは「ByteDance」で19%であり、市場がこの結果に19%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Anthropic」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「# 2 AIラボ10月末? (スタイルコントロールオン)」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。