Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have secured the top positions on August 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and LMSys Arena, establishing clear performance leadership in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This demonstrated capability drives the 68.5% market-implied probability that traders assign to Anthropic holding the best model by end of October. Other labs trail because their latest offerings have not closed the gap on independent benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model updates from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift Arena rankings before the snapshot. The odds reflect trader consensus on current trajectories while acknowledging that rapid iteration in large language models can alter competitive standing quickly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 80%
Amazon 15%
DeepSeek 14%
Mistral 14%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
Anthropic
73%
Amazon
15%
DeepSeek
14%
Mistral
14%
14%
Alibaba
13%
Nvidia
13%
OpenAI
11%
Meituan
10%
Thinky
9%
Microsoft
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
5%
SpaceXAI
2%
StepFun
2%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meta
10%
Tencent
10%
Anthropic 80%
Amazon 15%
DeepSeek 14%
Mistral 14%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
Anthropic
$57 Vol.
73%
Amazon
$44 Vol.
15%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$44 Vol.
14%
$44 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$44 Vol.
13%
Nvidia
$44 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$49 Vol.
11%
Meituan
$65 Vol.
10%
Thinky
$44 Vol.
9%
Microsoft
$90 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$107 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$87 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$87 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$87 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$87 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$87 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$107 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$87 Vol.
1%
Meta
$87 Vol.
10%
Tencent
$87 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have secured the top positions on August 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and LMSys Arena, establishing clear performance leadership in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This demonstrated capability drives the 68.5% market-implied probability that traders assign to Anthropic holding the best model by end of October. Other labs trail because their latest offerings have not closed the gap on independent benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model updates from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift Arena rankings before the snapshot. The odds reflect trader consensus on current trajectories while acknowledging that rapid iteration in large language models can alter competitive standing quickly.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$1,482終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have secured the top positions on August 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and LMSys Arena, establishing clear performance leadership in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This demonstrated capability drives the 68.5% market-implied probability that traders assign to Anthropic holding the best model by end of October. Other labs trail because their latest offerings have not closed the gap on independent benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model updates from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift Arena rankings before the snapshot. The odds reflect trader consensus on current trajectories while acknowledging that rapid iteration in large language models can alter competitive standing quickly.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,482終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have secured the top positions on August 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and LMSys Arena, establishing clear performance leadership in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This demonstrated capability drives the 68.5% market-implied probability that traders assign to Anthropic holding the best model by end of October. Other labs trail because their latest offerings have not closed the gap on independent benchmarks. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model updates from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift Arena rankings before the snapshot. The odds reflect trader consensus on current trajectories while acknowledging that rapid iteration in large language models can alter competitive standing quickly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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