Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 34%
Xiaomi 32%
Z.ai 25%
アリババ 22%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
Anthropic
34%
Xiaomi
32%
Z.ai
25%
アリババ
22%
ムーンショット
21%
OpenAI
21%
ByteDance
18%
Amazon
17%
Meituan
17%
Tencent
16%
DeepSeek
16%
Baidu
10%
SpaceXAI
22%
Nvidia
6%
Thinky
15%
Mistral
17%
6%
Meta
28%
MiniMax
14%
Microsoft
4%
StepFun
3%
Anthropic 34%
Xiaomi 32%
Z.ai 25%
アリババ 22%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
Anthropic
$138 Vol.
34%
Xiaomi
$91 Vol.
32%
Z.ai
$91 Vol.
25%
アリババ
$91 Vol.
22%
ムーンショット
$91 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$91 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$91 Vol.
18%
Amazon
$91 Vol.
17%
Meituan
$91 Vol.
17%
Tencent
$91 Vol.
16%
DeepSeek
$91 Vol.
16%
Baidu
$86 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$86 Vol.
22%
Nvidia
$80 Vol.
6%
Thinky
$91 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$128 Vol.
17%
$85 Vol.
6%
Meta
$91 Vol.
28%
MiniMax
$91 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$84 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$91 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
音量
$1,967終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
音量
$1,967終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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