Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the 86% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (61) and multiple coding, agentic, and knowledge benchmarks. Its combination of 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning with max/high effort modes, and performance nearing or exceeding the earlier Claude Fable 5 frontier model at lower cost has solidified trader consensus around these variants. Older Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 lines trail at single-digit probabilities due to the rapid capability jump, while the near-term August 17 resolution leaves little room for unannounced competitors to shift the ranking before the snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-5-max 86%
claude-opus-5-high 32%
その他 22%
claude-opus-4-6 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
86%
claude-opus-5-high
32%
その他
22%
claude-opus-4-6
9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-fable-5
8%
claude-opus-5-max 86%
claude-opus-5-high 32%
その他 22%
claude-opus-4-6 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
$0 Vol.
86%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
32%
その他
$0 Vol.
22%
claude-opus-4-6
$67 Vol.
9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$69 Vol.
8%
claude-fable-5
$48 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the 86% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (61) and multiple coding, agentic, and knowledge benchmarks. Its combination of 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning with max/high effort modes, and performance nearing or exceeding the earlier Claude Fable 5 frontier model at lower cost has solidified trader consensus around these variants. Older Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 lines trail at single-digit probabilities due to the rapid capability jump, while the near-term August 17 resolution leaves little room for unannounced competitors to shift the ranking before the snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$184終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the 86% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (61) and multiple coding, agentic, and knowledge benchmarks. Its combination of 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning with max/high effort modes, and performance nearing or exceeding the earlier Claude Fable 5 frontier model at lower cost has solidified trader consensus around these variants. Older Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 lines trail at single-digit probabilities due to the rapid capability jump, while the near-term August 17 resolution leaves little room for unannounced competitors to shift the ranking before the snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$184終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETAnthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the 86% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (61) and multiple coding, agentic, and knowledge benchmarks. Its combination of 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning with max/high effort modes, and performance nearing or exceeding the earlier Claude Fable 5 frontier model at lower cost has solidified trader consensus around these variants. Older Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 lines trail at single-digit probabilities due to the rapid capability jump, while the near-term August 17 resolution leaves little room for unannounced competitors to shift the ranking before the snapshot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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