Rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities underpins the 90% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Epoch AI’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors across 42% of problems, yielding a cleaner 338-problem set where leading models such as GPT-5.6 variants and Claude Fable 5 now post 87–88% scores on Tier 4 research-level items. Continued scaling, targeted post-training on mathematical domains, and iterative releases expected through late 2026 provide the main catalysts for crossing the threshold within months. Traders weigh historical benchmark saturation patterns against the narrow remaining gap and typical development timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
90% 確率
$117,315 Vol.
$117,315 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
90% 確率
$117,315 Vol.
$117,315 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities underpins the 90% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Epoch AI’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors across 42% of problems, yielding a cleaner 338-problem set where leading models such as GPT-5.6 variants and Claude Fable 5 now post 87–88% scores on Tier 4 research-level items. Continued scaling, targeted post-training on mathematical domains, and iterative releases expected through late 2026 provide the main catalysts for crossing the threshold within months. Traders weigh historical benchmark saturation patterns against the narrow remaining gap and typical development timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
音量
$117,315終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities underpins the 90% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Epoch AI’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors across 42% of problems, yielding a cleaner 338-problem set where leading models such as GPT-5.6 variants and Claude Fable 5 now post 87–88% scores on Tier 4 research-level items. Continued scaling, targeted post-training on mathematical domains, and iterative releases expected through late 2026 provide the main catalysts for crossing the threshold within months. Traders weigh historical benchmark saturation patterns against the narrow remaining gap and typical development timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$117,315終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid progress in large language model reasoning capabilities underpins the 90% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Epoch AI’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors across 42% of problems, yielding a cleaner 338-problem set where leading models such as GPT-5.6 variants and Claude Fable 5 now post 87–88% scores on Tier 4 research-level items. Continued scaling, targeted post-training on mathematical domains, and iterative releases expected through late 2026 provide the main catalysts for crossing the threshold within months. Traders weigh historical benchmark saturation patterns against the narrow remaining gap and typical development timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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