DeepSeek’s rapid V4 iteration drives trader focus on the next Flash release, with the cost-efficient 284B MoE variant (13B active) updated to the 0731 build on July 31, 2026, via post-training improvements that boosted agentic and coding benchmarks to near-Pro levels at roughly one-third the price. The April 24 V4 preview paired Flash with the stronger Pro model, both offering 1M context, while the August 13 official V4-Pro launch and upcoming August 16 price adjustments highlight DeepSeek’s strategy of frequent, open-weight drops that undercut U.S. rivals. Historical cadence of roughly 60 days between major updates, combined with no confirmed V5 timeline as of mid-August, shapes market-implied odds around October windows, though regulatory scrutiny on Chinese AI exports or internal scaling limits could shift timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
9月30日
33%
11月30日
63%
$176 Vol.
9月30日
$115 Vol.
33%
11月30日
$61 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek’s rapid V4 iteration drives trader focus on the next Flash release, with the cost-efficient 284B MoE variant (13B active) updated to the 0731 build on July 31, 2026, via post-training improvements that boosted agentic and coding benchmarks to near-Pro levels at roughly one-third the price. The April 24 V4 preview paired Flash with the stronger Pro model, both offering 1M context, while the August 13 official V4-Pro launch and upcoming August 16 price adjustments highlight DeepSeek’s strategy of frequent, open-weight drops that undercut U.S. rivals. Historical cadence of roughly 60 days between major updates, combined with no confirmed V5 timeline as of mid-August, shapes market-implied odds around October windows, though regulatory scrutiny on Chinese AI exports or internal scaling limits could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$176終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek’s rapid V4 iteration drives trader focus on the next Flash release, with the cost-efficient 284B MoE variant (13B active) updated to the 0731 build on July 31, 2026, via post-training improvements that boosted agentic and coding benchmarks to near-Pro levels at roughly one-third the price. The April 24 V4 preview paired Flash with the stronger Pro model, both offering 1M context, while the August 13 official V4-Pro launch and upcoming August 16 price adjustments highlight DeepSeek’s strategy of frequent, open-weight drops that undercut U.S. rivals. Historical cadence of roughly 60 days between major updates, combined with no confirmed V5 timeline as of mid-August, shapes market-implied odds around October windows, though regulatory scrutiny on Chinese AI exports or internal scaling limits could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$176終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...DeepSeek’s rapid V4 iteration drives trader focus on the next Flash release, with the cost-efficient 284B MoE variant (13B active) updated to the 0731 build on July 31, 2026, via post-training improvements that boosted agentic and coding benchmarks to near-Pro levels at roughly one-third the price. The April 24 V4 preview paired Flash with the stronger Pro model, both offering 1M context, while the August 13 official V4-Pro launch and upcoming August 16 price adjustments highlight DeepSeek’s strategy of frequent, open-weight drops that undercut U.S. rivals. Historical cadence of roughly 60 days between major updates, combined with no confirmed V5 timeline as of mid-August, shapes market-implied odds around October windows, though regulatory scrutiny on Chinese AI exports or internal scaling limits could shift timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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