Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training has begun on Gemini 4, its “most ambitious pre-training run yet,” with CEO Sundar Pichai adding on the July 23 earnings call that the model requires significantly larger scale than prior versions to advance frontier capabilities, especially coding and agentic workflows. As of late August the model remains in early training with no official release window or benchmarks disclosed. This follows rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.x Flash series—including 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash launches in July and August—while the long-delayed 3.5 Pro stays in partner testing. Historical six-month training-to-release cycles and Google’s stated shift toward near-monthly model cadence have shaped trader views that a late-2026 debut remains the most plausible path, though exact timing hinges on post-training, safety, and evaluation milestones still ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$236,772 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
7%
9月15日
13%
9月30日
16%
October 31
59%
11月30日
81%
$236,772 Vol.
8月31日
$53,852 Vol.
7%
9月15日
$16 Vol.
13%
9月30日
$71,538 Vol.
16%
October 31
$9 Vol.
59%
11月30日
$147 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training has begun on Gemini 4, its “most ambitious pre-training run yet,” with CEO Sundar Pichai adding on the July 23 earnings call that the model requires significantly larger scale than prior versions to advance frontier capabilities, especially coding and agentic workflows. As of late August the model remains in early training with no official release window or benchmarks disclosed. This follows rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.x Flash series—including 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash launches in July and August—while the long-delayed 3.5 Pro stays in partner testing. Historical six-month training-to-release cycles and Google’s stated shift toward near-monthly model cadence have shaped trader views that a late-2026 debut remains the most plausible path, though exact timing hinges on post-training, safety, and evaluation milestones still ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
音量
$236,772終了日
2026/12/01マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training has begun on Gemini 4, its “most ambitious pre-training run yet,” with CEO Sundar Pichai adding on the July 23 earnings call that the model requires significantly larger scale than prior versions to advance frontier capabilities, especially coding and agentic workflows. As of late August the model remains in early training with no official release window or benchmarks disclosed. This follows rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.x Flash series—including 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash launches in July and August—while the long-delayed 3.5 Pro stays in partner testing. Historical six-month training-to-release cycles and Google’s stated shift toward near-monthly model cadence have shaped trader views that a late-2026 debut remains the most plausible path, though exact timing hinges on post-training, safety, and evaluation milestones still ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$236,772終了日
2026/12/01マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training has begun on Gemini 4, its “most ambitious pre-training run yet,” with CEO Sundar Pichai adding on the July 23 earnings call that the model requires significantly larger scale than prior versions to advance frontier capabilities, especially coding and agentic workflows. As of late August the model remains in early training with no official release window or benchmarks disclosed. This follows rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.x Flash series—including 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash launches in July and August—while the long-delayed 3.5 Pro stays in partner testing. Historical six-month training-to-release cycles and Google’s stated shift toward near-monthly model cadence have shaped trader views that a late-2026 debut remains the most plausible path, though exact timing hinges on post-training, safety, and evaluation milestones still ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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