Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,838 Vol.
$181,838 Vol.

Anthropic
86%

OpenAI
12%

1%

Z.ai
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

アリババ
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

スペースXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

バイドゥ
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美団
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,838 Vol.
$181,838 Vol.

Anthropic
86%

OpenAI
12%

1%

Z.ai
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

アリババ
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%

スペースXAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

バイトダンス
<1%

バイドゥ
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美団
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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