Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
9月30日
14%
10月31日
59%
11月30日
79%
$947 Vol.
9月30日
$20 Vol.
14%
10月31日
$726 Vol.
59%
11月30日
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
音量
$947終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$947終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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