**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日のニューヨークの最低気温は？
8月4日のニューヨークの最低気温は？
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$13,209 Vol.
$13,209 Vol.
2026/08/04
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$13,209 Vol.
$13,209 Vol.
2026/08/04
59°F or below
$469 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$281 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$567 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$700 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,155 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$2,500 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$1,335 Vol.
99%
72-73°F
$3,035 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,965 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$778 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
音量
$13,209終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$13,209終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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