Recent European model runs and Météo-France guidance indicate a ridge of high pressure maintaining mostly sunny, stable conditions over northern France through August 5, supporting maximum temperatures near 28–29 °C in central Paris. This places 28 °C as the market’s leading outcome at 45.5 % implied probability, followed closely by 29 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited moisture or frontal activity expected to suppress higher readings above 30 °C while keeping overnight lows around 18–20 °C. The pattern follows a brief cooldown after late-July heatwave conditions, aligning forecasts closer to long-term August climatology of 25–27 °C rather than recent extremes. Updated model cycles on August 4 will provide the next key test of these probabilities.