Kansas's partisan composition and Roger Marshall's incumbency position the Republican nominee as the clear favorite in the November 3 general election against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August 4 primary and maintains leads in recent polling averages, consistent with the state's 16-point Republican margin in the 2024 presidential vote. Hamilton, a pastor, emerged from a crowded Democratic field but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans hold both Senate seats and supermajorities in the legislature. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns an 81% implied probability to a GOP win while leaving room for shifts from turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$45,985 Vol.
$45,985 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
82%
民主党
19%
$45,985 Vol.
$45,985 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$30,012 Vol.
82%
民主党
$15,973 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kansas's partisan composition and Roger Marshall's incumbency position the Republican nominee as the clear favorite in the November 3 general election against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August 4 primary and maintains leads in recent polling averages, consistent with the state's 16-point Republican margin in the 2024 presidential vote. Hamilton, a pastor, emerged from a crowded Democratic field but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans hold both Senate seats and supermajorities in the legislature. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns an 81% implied probability to a GOP win while leaving room for shifts from turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
音量
$45,985終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kansas's partisan composition and Roger Marshall's incumbency position the Republican nominee as the clear favorite in the November 3 general election against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August 4 primary and maintains leads in recent polling averages, consistent with the state's 16-point Republican margin in the 2024 presidential vote. Hamilton, a pastor, emerged from a crowded Democratic field but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans hold both Senate seats and supermajorities in the legislature. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns an 81% implied probability to a GOP win while leaving room for shifts from turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$45,985終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Kansas's partisan composition and Roger Marshall's incumbency position the Republican nominee as the clear favorite in the November 3 general election against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August 4 primary and maintains leads in recent polling averages, consistent with the state's 16-point Republican margin in the 2024 presidential vote. Hamilton, a pastor, emerged from a crowded Democratic field but faces structural headwinds in a state where Republicans hold both Senate seats and supermajorities in the legislature. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns an 81% implied probability to a GOP win while leaving room for shifts from turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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