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icon for ベルリン州選挙の勝者
世界·世界選挙

ベルリン州選挙の勝者

icon for ベルリン州選挙の勝者
世界·世界選挙

ベルリン州選挙の勝者

リンク 68%

CDU 27%

AfD 5.3%

グリューネ <1%

Polymarket

$3,920,373 Vol.

リンク 68%

CDU 27%

AfD 5.3%

グリューネ <1%

Polymarket

$3,920,373 Vol.

icon for リンク

リンク

$316,515 Vol.

68%

icon for CDU

CDU

$352,802 Vol.

27%

icon for AfD

AfD

$2,512,861 Vol.

5%

icon for グリューネ

グリューネ

$217,538 Vol.

1%

icon for SPD

SPD

$436,030 Vol.

<1%

icon for FDP

FDP

$20,953 Vol.

<1%

icon for FW

FW

$15,172 Vol.

<1%

icon for BSW

BSW

$48,502 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke holding a narrow lead or tie with the CDU in the low 20s percent, ahead of the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails further back and smaller parties remain below the five-percent threshold. This positioning stems from Linke gains over the summer, driven by its campaign under top candidate Elif Eralp and voter shifts away from the incumbent CDU-led administration. The tight multi-party contest and firewall against AfD participation limit straightforward coalition paths, yet Linke’s recent upward trend in surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forsa has shaped trader consensus around its prospects for the largest share of seats. Late-campaign developments and turnout patterns could still alter the final ordering.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$3,920,373
終了日
2026/09/20
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke holding a narrow lead or tie with the CDU in the low 20s percent, ahead of the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails further back and smaller parties remain below the five-percent threshold. This positioning stems from Linke gains over the summer, driven by its campaign under top candidate Elif Eralp and voter shifts away from the incumbent CDU-led administration. The tight multi-party contest and firewall against AfD participation limit straightforward coalition paths, yet Linke’s recent upward trend in surveys from institutes such as Infratest dimap and Forsa has shaped trader consensus around its prospects for the largest share of seats. Late-campaign developments and turnout patterns could still alter the final ordering.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$3,920,373
終了日
2026/09/20
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

関連

icon for AfDは2026年のベルリン州選挙で3番目に多い議席を獲得しますか？

AfDは2026年のベルリン州選挙で3番目に多い議席を獲得しますか？

56%
はい
icon for 2026年ベルリン州選挙でグリューネは4番目に多くの議席を獲得しますか？

2026年ベルリン州選挙でグリューネは4番目に多くの議席を獲得しますか？

62%
はい
icon for Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

31%

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よくある質問

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「リンク」で68%、次いで「CDU」が27%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、68¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に68%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」は$3.9 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 2, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「リンク」で68%であり、市場がこの結果に68%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「CDU」で27%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。