Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets followed by Iranian missile barrages in early September 2026, have prompted Israeli authorities to close or severely restrict civilian airspace, issue nationwide alerts, and shift to limited activity protocols. These moves mirror earlier 2026 episodes in February-March and June, when similar exchanges led to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport and across the Tel Aviv FIR to mitigate missile and drone risks. Trader sentiment reflects the fragile nature of the April ceasefire, ongoing regional threats from Iran and allied groups, and the potential for further retaliatory cycles or diplomatic de-escalation steps before the September 30 resolution window. Volatility in security assessments and NOTAM extensions continues to shape assessments of additional closures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,701,559 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
70%
$28,701,559 Vol.
9月30日
$1,108,401 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets followed by Iranian missile barrages in early September 2026, have prompted Israeli authorities to close or severely restrict civilian airspace, issue nationwide alerts, and shift to limited activity protocols. These moves mirror earlier 2026 episodes in February-March and June, when similar exchanges led to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport and across the Tel Aviv FIR to mitigate missile and drone risks. Trader sentiment reflects the fragile nature of the April ceasefire, ongoing regional threats from Iran and allied groups, and the potential for further retaliatory cycles or diplomatic de-escalation steps before the September 30 resolution window. Volatility in security assessments and NOTAM extensions continues to shape assessments of additional closures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
音量
$28,701,559終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets followed by Iranian missile barrages in early September 2026, have prompted Israeli authorities to close or severely restrict civilian airspace, issue nationwide alerts, and shift to limited activity protocols. These moves mirror earlier 2026 episodes in February-March and June, when similar exchanges led to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport and across the Tel Aviv FIR to mitigate missile and drone risks. Trader sentiment reflects the fragile nature of the April ceasefire, ongoing regional threats from Iran and allied groups, and the potential for further retaliatory cycles or diplomatic de-escalation steps before the September 30 resolution window. Volatility in security assessments and NOTAM extensions continues to shape assessments of additional closures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$28,701,559終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets followed by Iranian missile barrages in early September 2026, have prompted Israeli authorities to close or severely restrict civilian airspace, issue nationwide alerts, and shift to limited activity protocols. These moves mirror earlier 2026 episodes in February-March and June, when similar exchanges led to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben Gurion Airport and across the Tel Aviv FIR to mitigate missile and drone risks. Trader sentiment reflects the fragile nature of the April ceasefire, ongoing regional threats from Iran and allied groups, and the potential for further retaliatory cycles or diplomatic de-escalation steps before the September 30 resolution window. Volatility in security assessments and NOTAM extensions continues to shape assessments of additional closures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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