The open IL-08 seat, vacated by Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate bid, favors the Democratic nominee Melissa Bean due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in suburban Cook, DuPage, and Kane counties. Post-March 2026 primaries, Bean’s victory over a crowded field and the Republican nomination of Jennifer Davis have reinforced trader consensus around the 93-94% range. Heavy Democratic fundraising advantages, historical vote margins in the low double digits, and the absence of major shifts in local polling or national conditions since the primaries sustain this positioning. A Republican win would require an unusually strong national midterm tailwind, unforeseen nominee vulnerabilities, or sharp turnout swings that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,725 Vol.
$20,725 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$20,725 Vol.
$20,725 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,403 Vol.
94%
共和党
$11,322 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open IL-08 seat, vacated by Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate bid, favors the Democratic nominee Melissa Bean due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in suburban Cook, DuPage, and Kane counties. Post-March 2026 primaries, Bean’s victory over a crowded field and the Republican nomination of Jennifer Davis have reinforced trader consensus around the 93-94% range. Heavy Democratic fundraising advantages, historical vote margins in the low double digits, and the absence of major shifts in local polling or national conditions since the primaries sustain this positioning. A Republican win would require an unusually strong national midterm tailwind, unforeseen nominee vulnerabilities, or sharp turnout swings that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$20,725終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open IL-08 seat, vacated by Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate bid, favors the Democratic nominee Melissa Bean due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in suburban Cook, DuPage, and Kane counties. Post-March 2026 primaries, Bean’s victory over a crowded field and the Republican nomination of Jennifer Davis have reinforced trader consensus around the 93-94% range. Heavy Democratic fundraising advantages, historical vote margins in the low double digits, and the absence of major shifts in local polling or national conditions since the primaries sustain this positioning. A Republican win would require an unusually strong national midterm tailwind, unforeseen nominee vulnerabilities, or sharp turnout swings that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,725終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open IL-08 seat, vacated by Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate bid, favors the Democratic nominee Melissa Bean due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean in suburban Cook, DuPage, and Kane counties. Post-March 2026 primaries, Bean’s victory over a crowded field and the Republican nomination of Jennifer Davis have reinforced trader consensus around the 93-94% range. Heavy Democratic fundraising advantages, historical vote margins in the low double digits, and the absence of major shifts in local polling or national conditions since the primaries sustain this positioning. A Republican win would require an unusually strong national midterm tailwind, unforeseen nominee vulnerabilities, or sharp turnout swings that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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