Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent party's 67.5% share in the prior cycle. Incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement opened the seat, but his endorsement helped Patty Garcia secure the Democratic nomination after the March 2026 primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited Republican fundraising and visibility for nominee Lupe Castillo. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Democrats aligns with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base, where structural advantages have historically produced large margins. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$42,282 Vol.
95%
共和党
$15,808 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent party's 67.5% share in the prior cycle. Incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement opened the seat, but his endorsement helped Patty Garcia secure the Democratic nomination after the March 2026 primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited Republican fundraising and visibility for nominee Lupe Castillo. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Democrats aligns with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base, where structural advantages have historically produced large margins. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$58,090終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent party's 67.5% share in the prior cycle. Incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement opened the seat, but his endorsement helped Patty Garcia secure the Democratic nomination after the March 2026 primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited Republican fundraising and visibility for nominee Lupe Castillo. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Democrats aligns with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base, where structural advantages have historically produced large margins. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$58,090終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent party's 67.5% share in the prior cycle. Incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement opened the seat, but his endorsement helped Patty Garcia secure the Democratic nomination after the March 2026 primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited Republican fundraising and visibility for nominee Lupe Castillo. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Democrats aligns with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base, where structural advantages have historically produced large margins. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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