**Rich McCormick, the Republican incumbent in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District, faced no primary opposition on May 19, 2026, allowing him to secure the nomination outright without triggering a runoff under Georgia’s majority-vote rule.** This uncontested status on the GOP side created a clear path for an outright first-round winner, anchoring trader expectations. On the Democratic side, multiple candidates split the vote in the May primary—leading contender Tony Kozycki received roughly 40 percent—necessitating a June 16 runoff that Kozycki later won. The market’s 95 percent implied probability for “Yes” therefore reflects the decisive, uncontested Republican outcome and the low likelihood that late developments would alter the first-round result. With the primaries concluded and no further procedural hurdles in the resolution window, traders have converged on the view that an outright first-round winner occurred.